Hdb Resale Price Growth Slows 16 1Q2025 Despite Record Number Million Dollar Flats
HDB resale prices show signs of stabilization in 1Q2025 with slowest quarterly price growth in over a year.
The latest data from the Housing and Development Board (HDB) shows that resale prices have slowed down in the first quarter of 2025, rising just 1.6% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). This is a significant decrease from the 2.6% increase seen in the previous quarter, and the slowest growth recorded since 4Q2023 when prices rose by 1.1%.
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According to Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons, the slower price growth could be attributed to the February 2025 Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise, which offered a record 5,500 flats for sale. Many buyers may have opted for these new flats instead, resulting in a decrease in demand for resale flats.
Out of 25 HDB towns, 19 saw an increase in prices in the first quarter, with Clementi recording the highest q-o-q price spike of 15.4%. This was followed by Marine Parade with a 7.2% increase and Bukit Merah with a 6.2% increase. However, the gains were smaller compared to the previous quarter, with Central Area recording a 25.6% increase and Toa Payoh recording a 12.1% increase.
Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group, notes that there were also larger price declines in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter, with the Central Area recording an 18.5% decrease and Geylang recording a 7% decrease. In 4Q2024, Ang Mo Kio saw the steepest decline of 5%.
Sun adds that these trends suggest that buyers are becoming more resistant to price increases. She also predicts that the market may see slower growth in the upcoming months.
By room type, three-room units saw the highest growth in 1Q2025, with average prices rising 2.3% q-o-q from $455,120 in 4Q2024 to $465,416 in 1Q2025. Five-room units also saw a notable growth of 2.1%, followed by four-room units with a 1.9% increase. On the other hand, multi-gen and Executive units saw the slowest quarterly price growth of 1.4%, while two-room units saw a 1.6% increase, according to HDB caveats.
Lee notes that the demand for smaller units in the secondary market has decreased since October 2024 when singles were allowed to apply for two-room BTO flats in all locations.
Despite the overall slow price growth, the number of HDB resale flats sold for seven-figures rose sharply in the first quarter, with an estimated 348 units sold. This marks a 22.1% increase from the previous quarter and the highest number ever sold in a single quarter.
According to Huttons’ Data Analytics, 57 of these transactions were for units that had just reached their Mandatory Occupation Period (MOP) of five years. This exceeds the number of five-year-old million-dollar resale flats sold in the whole of 2024.
Lee says that this could be due to the MOP period being fulfilled for centrally located HDB estates such as Alkaff Crescent, Bidadari Park Drive, Circuit Road, Dawson Road, and St George’s Lane.
Of the million-dollar transactions, over 90% were in mature estates such as Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, and Queenstown. In Toa Payoh alone, 68 million-dollar flats were sold, followed by Bukit Merah with 53 and Queenstown with 42.
In total, million-dollar flats made up around 5.3% of total transactions in 1Q2025.
HDB resale transactions rose by 2.6% from 6,424 cases in 4Q2024 to 6,590 cases in 1Q2025, according to data released by HDB. However, on a yearly basis, transaction volumes dropped by 6.8% from the 7,068 cases recorded in 1Q2024, marking the lowest number in the first quarter since 2020.
Despite the decrease in yearly sales, Sun considers the overall performance of the resale market to be “remarkable”. She adds that the resale market faced tough competition from the primary market, with HDB launching more than 10,000 new flats across the BTO and SBF sales exercises in February 2025.
The most popular HDB towns among buyers in 1Q2025 were Tampines, Sengkang, Woodlands, Yishun, and Jurong West, which accounted for 36.2% of total transactions in the first quarter.
Rental applications have also seen a sharp rise of 12.3% in the first quarter, with 9,662 units approved compared to 8,603 units in the previous quarter. On a yearly basis, rental applications rose by 2.8% from 9,398 units. Sun says that rental demand usually picks up after the year-end holidays and festive season, and there has also been a noticeable increase in foreign students and expats returning to Singapore.
HDB has announced that it will launch around 5,400 BTO flats in Bukit Merah, Bukit Panjang, Clementi, Sembawang, Tampines, Toa Payoh, and Woodlands in July, as well as a concurrent SBF exercise offering about 3,000 flats. This brings the total SBF supply in 2025 to about 8,500 units, the largest since 2017. This is in line with HDB’s target of launching 50,000 BTO flats from 2025 to 2027, with 19,600 units set to be launched this year.
In terms of the market outlook, Lee believes that the HDB resale market will remain tight for the rest of 2025. However, with the limited supply of resale flats and no BTO or SBF exercise in the second quarter, prices may begin to pick up. Lim predicts that HDB resale prices will rise by 3-6% by the end of the year and expects 26,000 to 27,000 transactions. On the other hand, Sun believes that HDB resale prices will rise by 5-8% in the same period, with a similar number of transactions. Over the long term, the supply of newly MOP units is expected to increase, with around 8,000 flats reaching their MOP in 2025, 13,500 in 2026, and 19,500 in 2028. Lim expects this to alleviate pressure on resale prices, especially for flats in mature estates or central locations, which continue to see strong demand among home buyers.